Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Tools on expert judgement

What is the best tool use in expert judgment?

But first let us define expert judgment and I will try to excerpt it from the report and presentation of my classmates in our Project Management class. Expert judgment is an approach for soliciting informed opinions from individuals with particular expertise. This approach is used to obtain a rapid assessment of the state of knowledge about a particular aspect of climate change. It is frequently used in a panel format, aggregating opinions to cover a broad range of issues regarding a topic. Expert judgment is frequently used to produce position papers on issues requiring policy responses and is integral to most other decision-making tools. This approach is most useful either in conjunction with a full research study or when there is insufficient time to undertake a full study. It is important to be aware, however, of the subjective nature of expert judgment and the need to select a representative sample of experts to cover the full spectrum of opinion on an issue. It is easy to apply but it requires knowledge of policy issues and available experts. More training may be required to assemble an expert panel, formulate questionnaires, and interpret and aggregate expert opinions.

The best is the 'Delphi technique' is a commonly used tool to secure expert judgment while initiating a project. 'Peer review' is a project selection tool, 'Expected value' is a method quantitative risk analysis, and 'WBS' is a project-planning tool. The Delphi method was developed at the RAND corporation in the early 1950s as a spin-off of an Air Force-sponsored research project, “Project Delphi”. The original project was designed to anticipate an optimal targeting of U.S. industries by a hypothetical Soviet strategic planner. In the middle 1960s and early 1970s the Delphi method found a wide variety of applications, and by 1974 the number of Delphi studies has exceeded 10,000 [Linstone & Turoff, 1975]. The Delphi method has undergone substantial evolution and diversification. The method was developed by mathematicians and engineers, and enjoyed considerable popularity among research managers, policy analysts, and corporate planners in the late 1960s early 1970s. By the middle of 1970s psychometricians, people trained in conducting controlled experiments with humans, began taking serious look at the Delphi methods and results. According to Cooke [Cooke, 1991], the most significant study in this regard is Sackman’s Delphi Critique (1975). As a result the whole question of evaluating expert opinion and developing methodological guidelines for its use has moved into the foreground. The Delphi exercises seem to have disappeared, and play almost no role in contemporary discussions of expert opinion.

I will list the methodologies under this technique:
- CTN-UPM,
- FEJ-GRS,
- KEEJAM,
- NNC,
- NUREG-1150,
- STUK-VTT,
- SEJ-TUD.
- LCM
- PMDA-PIRT
- RIPBR
- TRIZ-AFD


CTN-UPM [Cojazzi & Fogli, 2000]
This method was developed in 1997 by the Department of nuclear engineering, University of Polytechnics of Madrid, Spain. It was developed and adapted on the basis of the NUREG-1150 method, although there exists a very important difference between them regarding the way to aggregate experts evaluations. The CTN protocol has been developed to get estimates of subjective probabilities for unknown parameters and uncertain events. It consists of nine steps executed sequentially.

FEJ-GRS [Cojazzi & Fogli, 2000]
This method was developed in 1985 by GRS, Germany. The method has been developed to quantify the state of knowledge in elements of a breakdown of the question and to propagate it through this breakdown to arrive at a quantitative uncertainty statement for the answer. The method aggregates the judgements at lower levels and propagates them through the breakdown to arrive at a quantitative expression of the resulting state of knowledge at the model output level.


KEEJAM [Cojazzi & al, 1996], [Cojazzi & al, 1997], [Cojazzi & al, 1998], [Cojazzi & Fogli, 2000]
This method was developed in 1997 at JRC-ISIS in collaboration with the University of Brescia and the University of Bologna, Italy. Knowledge based method : the method employs Knowledge Engineering techniques, and includes explicit modelling of the knowledge and problem solving procedure of the domain expert. The approach provides structured and disciplined support to the knowledge engineer in eliciting the knowledge and reasoning strategies of the experts, building consistent knowledge models, and applying these models to the solution of the expert judgement task.


NNC [Cojazzi & Fogli, 2000]
This method was developed in 1996. It is based on the quality principles and procedures in the NNC Quality Procedures and Engineering Manual, U.K.. NNC is a Quality based method : based on quality assurance methods of the sources of information and of the problem solving processes, this approach is based on individual estimates. It involves a multi-disciplinary team, defined as a set of individuals with different but complementary skills. As there is no rigorous formal elicitation process, the NNC approach may be called informal expert judgement.


NUREG-1150 [Keeney & al, 1991], [Cojazzi & Fogli, 2000]
This method was developed in 1987-1990 by US-NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission), USA. Highly structured, this approach includes training of the experts, review of discussions, individual elicitations, composition and aggregation of the opinions and review by experts. In the NUREG-1150 approach, the domain experts write reports on the issue and their final estimates are elicited individually after expert’s discussions, then averaged on an equal weight basis.


STUK-VTT [Pulkkinen & Holmberg, 1997], [Simola & Virolainen, 2000], [Cojazzi & Fogli, 2000]
This method was developed in 1997 by VTT Automation, STUK, Finland. The method is a simplification of NUREG-1150. It was originally intended for use in various kinds of quantitative risk and reliability assessments, and in engineering and economical analyses, where remarkable uncertainties are present. The use of belief networks allows an adaptation of the elicitation efforts according to the available resources. The method is based on probabilistic representation of uncertainties. The predictions obtained from experts are expressed as probability distributions. The combination of these assessments is based on hierarchical Bayes models (belief networks). Due to this property, it is also possible to deal with experts who are not familiar with the concepts of probability. Although, there are no restrictions as to the applicability of the method, it is at its best when applied to generate predictions to quantitative parameters.


SEJ-TUD [Cooke & Goossens,1996] , [Cooke & Goossens, 2000]
This procedure guide for structured expert judgement was developed in 2000 by Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands. This is a European Guide for Expert Judgement in Uncertainty Analysis. It deals with procedures to perform an expert judgement study with the aim of achieving uncertainty distributions for an uncertainty analysis. In that field of application, the methods developed at the Delft University of Technology have benefited from experience gained with expert judgement in the US with the NUREG-1150 method. The procedure guide represents a mix of these developments.


LCM [Sliter & al, 2000], [Sliter & al, 2001], [Sliter & Gregor, 2001], [Sliter, 2003]
This method was developed by EPRI, USA as part of the Life Cycle Management/Nuclear Asset Management studies. In order to guarantee long-term equipment reliability risk in nuclear power plants, LCM helps managing ageing degradation and obsolescence of important systems, structures and components. It gives an optimal solution for life cycle management based on an economical comparison between the different possible solutions.


PMDA-PIRT: Proactive Materials Degradation Assessment - Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table [NRC, 2004a], [NRC, 2004b]
This is a method in the course of development since 2003 by the US-NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission). It is a method for anticipating degradation mechanisms related to equipment aging in nuclear plants.
The objectives of the method are to:
- identify and rank the degradation mechanisms likely to affect critical plant equipment,
- evaluate the efficiency of periodic inspections or implement new procedures for corrective maintenance or replacement,
- and enable improved understanding of observed, but also potential degradation mechanisms.


RIPBR, Risk-Informed, Performance-Based Regulation [Golay, 2000]
RIPBR was developed at the Department of Nuclear Engineering, MIT. It is an evolving alternative to the current prescriptive method of nuclear safety regulation. RIPBR is goals oriented while the prescriptive method is means oriented. RIPBR is capable of justifying simultaneous safety and economic nuclear power improvements. It includes the formulation of probabilities through expert elicitation and the review of risk-informed, performance-based engineering analyses used to evaluate proposed changes to existing technical specifications.


TRIZ-AFD [Kaplan & al, 1999], [Guarnieri & Haïk, 2002]
This method was developed in 1997 by KAPLAN. S. & al, USA. Il allows identification and analyses of failures based on the TRIZ method. AFD ( Anticipatory Failure Determination) was recently developed in the United States. AFD consists of two tools: AFD 1 and AFD 2. AFD 1 is used to analyse failure causes. AFD 2 completes AFD1 with a number of steps for failure anticipation.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=13&ved=0CBsQFjACOAo&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.knowledgeboard.com%2Fdownload%2F2471%2FState-of-the-art-on-expert-judgement-methods.doc&rct=j&q=best%20tool%20in%20expert%20judgment%3F&ei=flERTfOPAcTzcfHM9b4K&usg=AFQjCNE3t98NKTXSGzRI5KdrgxPjMZvpZQ&cad=rja

http://unfccc.int/files/adaptation/methodologies_for/vulnerability_and_adaptation/application/pdf/expert_judgment.pdf

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Project vs. Another Work

How is a project different to any other work?

A project differs much to any other work because a project has to define the scope, the first and most important, step in any project is defining the scope of the project. What is it you are supposed to accomplish by managing this project? What is the project objective? Equally important is defining what is not included in the scope of your project. If you don't get enough definition from your boss, clarify the scope yourself and send it back upstairs for confirmation. A project has to determine the available resources… What people, equipment, and money will you have available to you to achieve the project objectives? As a project manager, you usually will not have direct control of these resources, but will have to manage them through matrix management. Find out how easy or difficult that will be to do. A project has to check the timeline, when does the project have to be completed? As you develop your project plan you may have some flexibility in how you use time during the project, but deadlines usually are fixed. If you decide to use overtime hours to meet the schedule, you must weigh that against the limitations of your budget. A project to assemble your project team… Get the people on your team together and start a dialog. They are the technical experts. That's why their functional supervisor assigned them to the project. Your job is to manage the team. A project has to list the big steps… What are the major pieces of the project? If you don't know, start by asking your team. It is a good idea to list the steps in chronological order but don't obsess about it; you can always change the order later. A project has to list the smaller steps… List the smaller steps in each of the larger steps. Again, it usually helps you remember all the steps if you list them in chronological order. How many levels deep you go of more and more detailed steps depends on the size and complexity of your project. A project has to develop a preliminary plan… Assemble all your steps into a plan. What happens first? What is the next step? Which steps can go on at the same time with different resources? Who is going to do each step? How long will it take? There are many excellent software packages available that can automate a lot of this detail for you. Ask others in similar positions what they use. A project has to create a baseline plan…

Get feedback on your preliminary plan from your team and from any other stakeholders. Adjust your timelines and work schedules to fit the project into the available time. Make any necessary adjustments to the preliminary plan to produce a baseline plan. A project has to request project adjustments… There is almost never enough time, money or talent assigned to a project. Your job is to do more with the limited resources than people expect. However, there are often limits placed on a project that are simply unrealistic. You need to make your case and present it to your boss and request these unrealistic limits be changed. Ask for the changes at the beginning of the project. Don't wait until it's in trouble to ask for the changes you need. In a project you should to work your plan, but don't die for it… Making the plan is important, but the plan can be changed. You have a plan for driving to work every morning. If one intersection is blocked by an accident, you change your plan and go a different way. Do the same with your project plans. Change them as needed, but always keep the scope and resources in mind. In a project you should monitor your team's progress… You will make little progress at the beginning of the project, but start then to monitor what everyone is doing anyway. That will make it easier to catch issues before they become problems. A project has to document everything… Keep records. Every time you change from your baseline plan, write down what the change was and why it was necessary. Every time a new requirement is added to the project write down where the requirement came from and how the timeline or budget was adjusted because of it. You can't remember everything, so write them down so you'll be able to look them up at the end-of-project review and learn from them. In a project you as the project manger should keep everyone informed… Keep all the project stakeholders informed of progress all along. Let them know of your success as you complete each milestone, but also inform them of problems as soon as they come up. Also keep you team informed. If changes are being considered, tell the team about them as far ahead as you can. Make sure everyone on the team is aware of what everyone else is doing.

First, what is a project? According to Project Management Institute (PMI) Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), a project is a "temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique product, service, or result." Let's take a moment and explore "temporary" to gain a perspective on when an endeavor is a project and when it is not. According to dictionary.com, temporary means "lasting, existing, serving, or effective for a time only; not permanent." But any other work may have!!!

A project has major processes and according to PMI's PMBOK, there are nine project management knowledge areas that organize a project and this are Project Integration Management - project charter, scope, plan, manage execution, monitor and control, change control. Project Scope Control - describes all the work that should be included and no more. Project Time Management - timely completion of the project. Project Cost Management - budgeting, estimating, and controlling costs. Project Human Resources Management - organize and manage the team. Project Quality Management - ensures you are fulfilling the project objectives. Project Communications Management - disseminating project information. Project Risk Management - risk identification, mitigation, and contingency. Project Procurement Management - acquiring project materials.


Is Project Management relevant to me?

Eric’s answer is Yes! Yes! Yes! Because Project management has emerged as a crucial factor that determines the success of a project. Since then I was incorporated the idea of project management in the success of a project. Project Management as far as I am concerned involves various management approaches. The most basic analysis of the project is called as the initiation stage of a project. After this stage, designing or planning is done to streamline the task and make a flexible strategy to complete the task. Then the execution phase takes the center stage, and in this phase, the project is practically tackled with all its pros and cons. The monitoring and controlling of the project is done with the execution stage to check the possible threats and keep an eye on the performance of the team. Once the project is about to finish, it goes into the closing phase, where all the activities are finalized. Some of the prime advantages of having a good project management team for a project are as follows. It has to be in excellent product quality. Consumers generally look for low cost and high quality, while purchasing a product. Maintaining a high standard of excellence in developing quality products earns the company goodwill amongst its customers. How can a project management team help in improving the quality of a product? The project management plans the allocated budget, resources and testing methods that keep the pace of production high, both qualitatively and quantitatively. The project management team can also undertake training programs that enhance the quality of the products. It has to be in Adequate communication. Improper communication among employees can lead to misunderstandings and negatively impact the performance of the firm. A project manager can be a bridge among the diversified branches of project undertaking. And why only employees? Stakeholders also form a part of the company. They prefer investing in those companies that deliver projects on time and keep them informed about updates and progress of the projects. If a client is satisfied with the performance of the firm, it is likely that it will return with much bigger projects, not to mention huge investments. A project leader can hold meetings on a daily, weekly or monthly basis and can make sure that everyone is aware about the project plan and his/her responsibilities, both as an individual and as a team. With the help of human resource management department, project managers can be more effective in communicating the expectations of the clients. It has to be in reducing the risks and has to be in Strategic objectives and goals. And the best examples that I can give is like in our previous projects in Programming, IT fundamentals, Networking, System and Design and other subjects where some projects where did not been complied before time and some my classmates had been INC and the worst was failed.

http://www.unicon.net/node/811
http://management.about.com/od/projectmanagement/ht/ProjMgtSteps.htm
http://www.buzzle.com/articles/why-is-project-management-important.html

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Implementing change on projects

Implementing change in a project is difficult, and little practical guidance is available to assist small projects.
Several theoretical frameworks informed the purpose of this study designed to put in plain words the complex phenomena of implementing change in every practice whether it be in Technology, Industrial or Agriculture. Although change occurs continuously in the world and in our daily lives it is rarely implemented that way in organizations but rather as a series of steps, it is known as a ladder of change.

An innovative part of the pack of legislation, market imperatives. And project management initiatives and new technology create projects that need to be managed, often crossways departmental or corrective lines. Project Management is a methodology and a discipline which can bring important benefits to the individuals, group or organizations. By applying project management methodology, it will assure every project to success and way for more possibilities. Project Management methodology will ensure the limited resources are used on the right projects and efficiently. Project Management methodology will harness the energy of the workforce in achieving favorable change. Project Management methodology will manage compound changes in an organized way. Project Management methodology will assess risks, defining goals and implementing key success in project areas and setting quality objectives. However, all organization has limited resources and, for that reason, a limit to the number of projects it can start and control. Near enough too many projects through a resource limited organization causes gridlock and stress. Managing the project portfolio efficiently is a fundamental principle of good project management and as it will implement change.

For the reason that for the most part every project involves new ideas and learning yet a project to put up houses or flats may involve new materials or unusual soil conditions or there may be new initiative for tenant selection or co-ownership schemes project management has evolved a discipline to manage the new and unusual. But with the help of Project Management the above concerns will be addressed because its objective is to define the project, reduce it to a set of manageable tasks, obtain appropriate and necessary resources, build a team or teams to perform the project work, plan the work and allocate the resources to the tasks, monitor and control the work, report progress to senior management and/or the project sponsor, close down the project when completed, review it to ensure the lessons are learnt and widely understood.

If a project has a beginning and an end, what is its life cycle and how is it managed must be considered. To be successful and workable project methodologies should be suitable to the task and the organization. For simple projects in a small organization, agreed milestones, a few checklists and an important person to maneuver the project are all that are required. And for complex projects in a large organization a more structured approach is needed, to set up and support the project, keep an eye on and guides its progress, solve its problems, bring the end product or gain and close the project down. In order to be aware of the methodology we need to look at the project life cycle and the most common is waterfall which was given to us by Dr. Randy Gamboa but as we had our System and Design we used the FAST framework in completing a project. The detailed life cycle will be reliant upon the dimension and nature of organization and the dimension and nature of the project. On the other hand, in outline they all have very similar elements.

A typical methodology would involve a number of stages and activities which occur at different parts of the life cycle.
The primarily stage involves the project manager and sponsor in the preparation and endorsement of an outline project rationalization, plan and project budget. There is no reason why a project sponsor should not also be the project manager. A senior manager who has a strong business reason to drive the project will have the organizational right and clout with other senior managers and will over and over again make a first - rate project manager. The startup stage involves the choice and briefing of the project team and some conversation on the roles and organization. The feasibility or research stage will institute whether the project is possible and set up the risks and key success measures upon the project. Unless the organization undertakes research or new product development, feasibility often means ‘can this process or technology be cost effectively applied to the organization or department’, rather than is it generally feasible. It may include the identification of external resources such as specialist consultants or product and service providers who may wish to tender goods, software or services for the project.

The work will be undertaken by the team which may include external consultants and co-ordinate by the project manager. This team should consist of the key users or main beneficiaries of the beneficial change the project is delivering (hence the term ‘project deliverables’ or ‘products’. They may be line managers, supervisors or staff with particular skills. They must be the best people available and never those ‘who can be spared’ because they have difficult or awkward personalities. The object is to build a team that is better than the sum of the individuals. It is often the difficult people who consider and manage the detail. Their expertise and diligence should not be ignored but they are usually happier working in a solitary way or with likeminded individuals. Defining and planning the project in more detail by inscription and publishing a full definition of the project and determining a project plan. This work is undertaken by the team and co-ordinate by the project manager. Both should be communicated extensively to ensure maximum understanding of the project’s objectives by all staff who will be affected by the project. Now is the time to ensure their input to minimize surprises at a later stage.
The implementation stage involves the execution of the project as agreed, whilst carefully monitoring progress and managing changes. The team may need to be expanded at this stage to resource all the tasks. If so, it is essential they are fully briefed and feel ‘included’ as part of the team. When project management is not an integrated part of an organization’s culture it is a very good idea to undertake some team building events that allow the team to work together in a competitive but non-threatening environment. As people get used to forming and dissolving teams the need for and style of such team building events will be decided by the team. The close down stage involves the satisfactory delivery, the reasonable to the project ‘customer’ that is of the products or services that attain the beneficial gain. A project review should be held to learn the lessons. These should be formally documented and published the warts and all. There some had attended seminars in which very senior managers had disclosed the best and most horrible features of their for the most part the critical projects. They are always received with respect because people like to learn from the experience of others and bad experience is often more informative than good.

Nevertheless, implementing project management is the method of implementing change.



http://www.spottydog.u-net.com/guides/faq/faq.html